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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 40 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(1:59) (Shotgun) 7-K.Pickett pass incomplete short left to 83-J.Dotson.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.80 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 50, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model