4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 76

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to PHI 18, Center-41-J.Winchester. 33-C.DeJean pushed ob at PHI 31 for 13 yards (21-J.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.11 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 76, worth -4.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 34, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model