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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 53

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

What Actually Happened

(2:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 8-D.Hopkins (29-A.Maddox).

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.77 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 53, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model