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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 11

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 4-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model