Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 55

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

(12:09) 14-M.Araiza punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.97 EP
66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model