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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 49

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to KC 6, Center-49-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.76 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP