Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 76

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

(4:57) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to PHI 34, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.92 EP
72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 76, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model