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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 30

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.52 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model