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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 91

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 14-M.Araiza punts 54 yards to PHI 37, Center-41-J.Winchester. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 43 for 6 yards (2-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.03 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 91, worth -5.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.96 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 48, worth -2.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP