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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 29

Washington Commanders 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 47-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.62 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 29, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 39, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model