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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 30

Detroit Lions 31 – Washington Commanders 45

What Actually Happened

(:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to WAS 17 for 13 yards (1-N.Igbinoghene).

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.43 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP