4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 26

Washington Commanders 45 – Detroit Lions 31

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 47-Z.Gonzalez 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.12 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.10 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 36, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model