4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 13

Washington Commanders 38 – Detroit Lions 28

What Actually Happened

(8:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin to DET 1 for 12 yards (46-J.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.01 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 13, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 23, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model