Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 57

Washington Commanders 31 – Detroit Lions 21

(13:03) 10-T.Way punts 48 yards to DET 9, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-41-C.Yankoff.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.99 EP
66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model