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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 22

Los Angeles Rams 22 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 17-P.Nacua [98-J.Carter].

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +3.53 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -0.14 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.60 EP