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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 19

Philadelphia Eagles 19 – Los Angeles Rams 15

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.89 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 19, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model