4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 32

Philadelphia Eagles 19 – Los Angeles Rams 15

What Actually Happened

(8:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown to LA 23 for 9 yards (26-K.Kinchens).

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.23 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model