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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 5

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Los Angeles Rams 15

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 4-J.Elliott 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 5, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP