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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 62

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to PHI 4, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-88-J.Whittington.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.92 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP