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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 26

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.14 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model