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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 17

Houston Texans 12 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (54-L.Chenal), Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend, RECOVERED by KC-21-J.Hicks at KC 13. 21-J.Hicks pushed ob at KC 23 for 10 yards (6-T.Townsend).

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.58 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model