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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 40

Houston Texans 12 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(10:05) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 44 for -16 yards (56-G.Karlaftis).

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.83 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model