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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 51

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 14-M.Araiza punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.55 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.73 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model