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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 20

Washington Commanders 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 30-A.Ekeler.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.65 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model