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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 5

Washington Commanders 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.97 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model