Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Washington Commanders 7

(7:34) 5-J.Browning punts 56 yards to WAS 13, Center-86-E.Deckers. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 30 for 17 yards (81-R.Miller).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.15 EP
60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model