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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 43

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Baltimore Ravens 28

What Actually Happened

(6:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep middle to 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.14 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model