Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 64

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Baltimore Ravens 28

(15:00) 8-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to BAL 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 18-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.72 EP
74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 64, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model