Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 69

Baltimore Ravens 28 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 11-J.Stout punts 44 yards to PIT 25, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 19-C.Austin. Penalty on PIT-23-D.Kazee, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.15 EP
59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model