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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 57

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to BAL 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 18-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.49 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 57, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 17, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model