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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 16

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 16-W.Reichard 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.05 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 16, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP