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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 16

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 16-J.Karty 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.22 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 16, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP