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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 51

Los Angeles Rams 27 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to MIN 8, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.75 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 51, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.96 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model