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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to LA 14, Center-42-A.DePaola. 19-X.Smith to LA 22 for 8 yards (32-T.Chandler).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.76 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 28, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model