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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 71

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 14-S.Darnold up the middle to MIN 30 for 1 yard (90-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.37 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 29, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model