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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 59

Los Angeles Rams 27 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 42-E.Evans punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.76 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model