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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 26

Los Angeles Rams 24 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 16-J.Karty 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.22 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT +0.39 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model