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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 58

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(8:32) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to MIN 10, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.85 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 58, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model