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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(14:05) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to MIN 23, Center-47-A.Ward. 4-B.Powell MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at MIN 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.93 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model