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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 16

Buffalo Bills 28 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.84 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 16, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model