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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 9

Buffalo Bills 10 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(10:06) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.72 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 9, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model