Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 60

Buffalo Bills 10 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to DEN 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-M.Mims to DEN 15 for no gain (13-M.Hollins). PENALTY on DEN-19-M.Mims, Unnecessary Roughness, 7 yards, enforced at DEN 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.47 EP
60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model