Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 57

Denver Broncos 7 – Buffalo Bills 10

(10:49) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon pass short left to 19-M.Mims to BUF 42 for 15 yards (46-J.Ingram).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.72 EP
60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 57, worth -3.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model