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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 49

Washington Commanders 16 – Dallas Cowboys 19

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota left tackle to DAL 16 for 33 yards (28-M.Hooker).

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +0.91 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model