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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 52

Dallas Cowboys 19 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 5-B.Anger punts 43 yards to WAS 9, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.02 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 52, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model