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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 17 at the 17
Dallas Cowboys 6 – Washington Commanders 3
What Actually Happened
(8:55) 17-B.Aubrey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
The Three Options
GO
+0.80 EP
-
21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
- 79% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP
KICK
+1.64 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT
+0.06 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
