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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 1 at the 37
Dallas Cowboys 6 – Washington Commanders 3
What Actually Happened
(1:50) 40-H.Luepke up the middle to WAS 32 for 5 yards (4-F.Luvu).
The Three Options
GO
+1.80 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.44 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.61 EP
KICK
+0.42 EP
- 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
- 32% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT
-0.54 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
