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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 29

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 47-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.17 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP