Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 72

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to DAL 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 29 for 13 yards (36-C.Rodriguez). PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at DAL 17.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.79 EP
66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 72, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model