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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Arizona Cardinals
4th & 1 at the 48
Arizona Cardinals 40 – San Francisco 49ers 24
What Actually Happened
(2:00) 15-C.Tune up the middle to SF 46 for 2 yards (69-E.Anderson).
The Three Options
GO
+0.86 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.92 EP
- 28% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -1.85 EP
KICK
-0.31 EP
- 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 59% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT
-0.50 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.50 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
